MXGP 2026 analysis and favorites: the most evenly matched season ever?

Between who can win the championship and who can fight for a top-five finish the MXGP 2026 emerges as one of the most uncertain championships ever.

Putting aside prep races around Europe for MXGP riders, it’s time to put the same destination on the GPS. In fact,the 2026 season will kick off with the MXGP of Argentina on the weekend of March 7-8.

It has probably been years since there has been so much anticipation for the start of the World Motocross Championship. Indeed, 2026 will see eight World Champions representing 18 world titles lined up in MXGP. A figure that goes to create an – almost – unprecedented balance in the list of MXGP title favorites for 2026.

MXGP 2026: the favorites to win the world title

The entry list of the 2026 MXGP World Championship allows four riders to be pointed out as the biggest suspects for winning the rainbow crown: Lucas Coenen, Romain Febvre, Tim Gajser and Jeffrey Herlings . The Belgian and the Frenchman, protagonists in the battle for the title in 2025 as well, will have one advantage in the first GPs of the championship: knowing their bikes 100 percent.

Gajser and Herlings, in fact, have switched manufacturers for 2026: from Honda to Yamaha the former and from KTM to Honda the latter. The process of refining to the new means, however, already seems well underway. The Slovenian won the Internazionali d’Italia Motocross; the Dutchman the first round of the Dutch Master MX in Lierop.

Starting a hair further back on our MXGP 2026 “tier list” are Tom Vialle and Maxime Renaux. The two Frenchmen, both title winners in MX2, come from opposite situations: the newly acquired Honda rider will have to get reacquainted with European tracks after three seasons in the United States; the Yamaha standard-bearer will have to stay away from injuries and for the first time since his move to MXGP he will not be the lead rider for the official team of the House of the Three Tuning Forks.

Speaking of who passes in MXGP: the two rookies Andrea Adamo and Kay de Wolf will certainly not stay away from the top group. The Italian showed great speed in the Internazionali d’Italia while the Dutchman is likely to be penalized by a hand injury in the first races of the World Championship.

Also playing a key role in the title fight will be all those riders who are ready to place in the top five or on the podium in some GPs of the season. A group, this one, that is resoundingly large: from Ruben Fernandez, third point of the stellar Honda HRC team to the Ducatis of Andrea Bonacorsi, Calvin Vlaanderen and Jeremy Seewer, via Alberto Forato ‘s Fantic and private team riders such as Isak Gifting, who will start the season as an injured rider, Mattia Guadagnini, Jan Pancar, Kevin Horgmo and Thibault Benistant.

A quantum leap is also expected from Beta, which, especially with Jago Geerts, is poised to appear in the top ranks of MXGP.

In short, there are at least 19 drivers capable of leading in GPs and at least 8 ready to fight for the Championship victory. Are you now convinced? It is the most balanced season ever!